Is the Hormuz crisis about to trigger an LNG race between Asia and Europe?

Europe imports very little gas directly from Qatar. Yet a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would hit Europe’s energy security hard.

The reason is simple: LNG is a global market. Around one fifth of globally traded LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If this chokepoint is blocked, supply tightens abruptly. The highest bidder wins. Industry and households pay the price. Uncertainty rises — in an already fragile environment.

Europe is in direct competition with Asia for LNG — particularly with China and India, which import large volumes from Qatar. In summer, gas demand in Asia rises as electricity consumption for air conditioning increases. If Asian prices rise above European levels, cargoes will be redirected. Europe’s efforts to refill gas storage for next winter would come under pressure.

A critical constraint: the United States can hardly provide significant additional LNG volumes in the short term. Export capacity is already close to full utilisation. The longer a Hormuz blockade lasts, the more intense the competition between Europe and Asia will become.

As long as Europe continues to rely heavily on globally traded gas for power, heating and industrial production, it remains exposed to geopolitical escalation. Electrification powered by renewables is not only a climate strategy — it is an industrial and security imperative.